The IPO that reprices... everything.
Halloween confessions, AI creates jobs, YouTube creates wealth.
RF crew… I must confess something.
My favorite holiday is Halloween. And we did not dress up this year. My costume idea will need to wait another year. Heartbreaking!
I love to dress up. To commit to the bit. If we ever end up at a costume party together and there’s a contest… I play to win.
Not pictured: my black cat, Blue, that I brought into the office with me that day to play Salem.
He hated it. We got 1st Place.
Do you have a favorite holiday to go all in on?
Apparently YouTube has a new content format to bet big on.
Let’s get into what moved across AI, money, and the future of work.
90% of US workers expect AI to create new jobs
Despite the doomsday headlines, workers increasingly view AI as an opportunity, not a threat.
The latest global workforce survey by Adecco surveyed 35,700 employees (including 5,500 Americans), finding that 90% of US respondents expect AI to create new jobs and 77% say AI lets them do tasks previously out of reach. Only 20% fear AI will eliminate positions.
Insight for leaders: employees are hungry to learn AI skills. 99% of respondents who described themselves as “future-ready” said they planned to stay with their current employers for the foreseeable future, compared to 53% of less AI-capable people.
AI training = retention money
In practice, this means companies should double down on AI training and integration. If you’re seeking to attract top talent, frame new roles around AI. If you’re a creator of educational content or an AI tool vendor, market to corporate training programs. I expect the demand for easy-to-digest AI learning to continue to surge for another 12-24 months.
YouTube Shorts now generates more revenue per hour than long-form
In Google’s Q3 2025 earnings call, CEO Pichai revealed that YouTube Shorts now generates more revenue per watch hour than long-form content. YouTube posted $10.26B in ad revenue (up 15% YOY).
And now hiring an exec role for Creator & Community Products.
This creates a clear strategic shift. YouTube’s algorithm will increasingly favor Shorts because they’re better for business.
For creators: this is a business model evolution moment. The economics are changing, which means the strategy needs to change.
Shorts are now a legit revenue channel with real brand budgets flowing in and YouTube is still building out monetization features. Early movers capture asymmetric value.
I also expect “YouTube → owned audience” conversion tools will see a new demand boom.
OpenAI is tracking toward the first $1 trillion IPO
On October 28th, OpenAI completed its transformation to a Public Benefit Corporation with Microsoft receiving a 27% ownership stake valued at $135B. The deal extends Microsoft’s access to OpenAI models through 2032 (including post-AGI) and commits OpenAI to $250B in Azure purchases over that period.
Sam Altman explicitly stated the “most likely path” is going public, given the company’s capital needs: $1.4T in data center commitments globally over the next few years.
Why it matters: Microsoft just put a floor under AI infrastructure valuations by taking 27% for $135B, valuing OpenAI at $500B despite generating just $3.7B in annual revenue. Microsoft is telling the market that AI infrastructure is still underpriced.
The IPO path is now clear.
OpenAI can access unlimited growth capital through public markets while competitors remain dependent on VCs.
I bet OpenAI files for IPO sometime in H2 2026, likely at a $600-800B valuation, becoming the largest tech offering in history and possibly the first company to IPO above $1 trillion. This will trigger another wave of AI company IPOs. Anthropic, Perplexity, and others could follow within 12 months.
If you’re investing in AI infrastructure, the $500B valuation floor OpenAI just established reprices the entire sector. Companies with real revenue and enterprise traction are worth more than the market currently prices them. Look for companies valued at 10-30x revenue that could re-rate to 50-100x post-OpenAI IPO.
When infrastructure companies go from private to public, they shift from “growth at all costs” to “profitable growth.”
For customers, this means pricing discipline. (higher costs)
For investors, this means clearer path to returns.
For AI operators, this means planning for a world where AI inference doesn’t get cheaper… I see it becoming more expensive as demand is outpacing supply.
The geography angle matters more than most people realize. That $1.4T in data center commitments has to go somewhere. Power availability determines the winners. Back in April, I wrote about how Nvidia’s Arizona buildout could turn the state into a magnet for young money and builders the same way HP, Intel, and Apple seeded Silicon Valley, and Tesla anchored Austin’s boom.
Economic power is being reshaped by hardware, geography, and capital flows. AI infrastructure is the defining technology investment of the 2020s.
AI bubble what?
ICYMI…
This month’s paid Deep Dive is the most actionable piece I’ve written on where money is headed. Behind the paywall, I break down:
My current crypto allocation
Rebalancing triggers I use
The stablecoin reality of 2025: yields, risks, and when they do make sense
What replaces stablecoins and how to position early
If you’ve wondered what crypto I hold and why… this is the one.
Note: price increases December 1 for the paid tier. Upgrade now to lock in at current pricing.
We wrap with a few quick signals on my radar that indicate where capital and culture are headed...
Spotify is streaming select video podcasts on Netflix, starting with The Ringer shows. The creator economy just got living room distribution at Netflix scale.
Mastercard is chasing after crypto infrastructure with ~$2B Zerohash acquisition.
Uber drivers can now earn money training AI models during downtime. Gig platforms are monetizing their workforces as on-demand AI training labor, competing directly with Scale AI.
Fashion and beauty brands are renting CEOs to bridge executive leadership gaps without full-time cost. The income portfolio economy I wrote about in September is now hitting C-suite.
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The $500B floor Microsoft just set is going to create a massive ripple through enterprise software valuations. They're basically saying AI model access is worth 135x annual revenue which completely reshapes how the market prices anything with API access. The Azure lock-in angle is genius tho because even if OpenAI goes public at $1T, Microsoft is still getting paid twice on every dollar of OpenAI's growth. They collect on the equity appreciation AND the infrastructure consumption at the same time.